AFRICA SIGNAL CHECK · THE WEEK · 21-25 SEPTEMBER 2026
The state names its price
Six central banks priced money in three directions this week, and the state priced everything else. Abidjan held the cocoa farmgate at less than half last year's price, Windhoek made local processing the entry ticket, Washington made a ceasefire the price of a visa, and Morocco's voters priced the ballot at 38%. Underwrite the term sheet the state is writing, not the headline it is answering.
Prepared by the Kilwa Research team · Series editor: Hinsley Njila, Founder and CEO · FRI 25 SEP 2026
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AT A GLANCE
The week in six numbers
NIGERIA · BILLS
15.89%
364-day T-bill stop rate, down from 16.62%
CBN auction via Nairametrics, 24 Sep
EGYPT · POLICY RATE
19.00%
CBE overnight deposit rate, fifth straight hold
CBE via Masrawy (Arabic), 24 Sep
MOROCCO · VOTE
38.02%
Final turnout, against 50.35% in 2021
Interior Ministry via Medias24, 24 Sep
GHANA · COCOA
771,000t
2025/26 cocoa output, up 27.7%
COCOBOD via Reuters, 23 Sep
HORN · CORRIDOR
$660m
Dangote-EIH pipeline and storage to Djibouti
Bloomberg, 24 Sep
ETHIOPIA · CONFLICT
3
Tigray airports held by TPLF-linked forces
Reuters, Al Jazeera, 23-25 Sep
IN THIS EDITION
12 stories · Business 7 · Regulatory 1 · Political 4
01 Nigeria easing · 02 Minerals at UNGA · 03 SA macro and rates · 04 Egypt carry · 05 Ethiopia and the Horn · 06 Dangote corridor · 07 Kenya two-track · 08 Senegal restructuring · 09 Sudan ceasefire lever · 10 Morocco formation · 11 Zambia program path · 12 West African cocoa
BUSINESS · NIGERIA
01 Nigeria's rate reset cleared its first test. The naira sets the second.
A day after the 350 basis point cut to 23.00%, the 364-day bill cleared at 15.89%, down from 16.62%, on N4.09trn of bids, 9.2x the amount sold. The naira traded at N1,326-1,329 in the official window, from about N1,331 on 23 September.
TIERS · Opportunity Solid near, Moderate long · Risk Elevated near, High long
KILWA READ
The reset passed its first market test. We expect no further cut at the 23-24 November MPC (likely).
WRONG IF · The naira trades more than 5% weaker than N1,331 by 31 October.
WATCH NEXT · 23-24 Nov · CBN Monetary Policy Committee
Source: CBN auction via Nairametrics, 24 Sep · Bloomberg, 24 Sep · NFEM range as of 25 Sep
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